On November 25th, the data released by the Federation showed that the role of the current consumption encouragement policy was limited in the short term, and it was difficult for the auto market to recover quickly. And new energy manufacturers grab the policy dividend, which is expected to get out of the differentiated market at the end of the year.
Looking back on October, the dealer operation and consumer travel were blocked, and the market performance was less than expected. In January, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.843 million, up 7.5% year-on-year and down 4.2% month-on-month. Affected by the adjustment of head manufacturers, 555,000 new energy retail vehicles increased by 74.9% year-on-year, decreased by 9.2% month-on-month, and the penetration rate was 30.1%. From January to October, the automobile market in Guangdong, Chongqing, Beijing and other regions with strong automobile consumption was restrained. In this context, the policy of halving the purchase tax of fuel vehicles has obviously weakened the driving force of the automobile market, and it is difficult for the automobile market to keep consistent with the peak season performance at the end of last year.
By the middle of November, the overall discount rate of passenger car market was about 14.5%, the overall profit-making level was slightly lower than last month's (14.2%), and the pressure of terminal operation increased. According to the retail target survey in November, the manufacturers accounting for about 80% of the total market increased by about 5% year-on-year. It is preliminarily estimated that the retail market of narrow-sense passenger cars this month will be about 1.86 million, with an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of new energy will be about 600,000, with a year-on-year increase of 58.5% and a penetration rate of about 32.3%.
Based on the market performance since November, Henan and other major automobile consumption provinces have been seriously affected, and the average daily sales of major manufacturers in the first, second and third weeks of retail sales have narrowed year on year. Near the end of the year, automobile subsidy policies in various places are heating up again, especially in areas where the market was depressed in the early stage. It is expected that the market in the fourth week will be the same as last year. Considering the efforts of the consumption promotion policy, manufacturers generally step up to complete the annual sales task, and the fifth week will enter the month-end impulse stage.
According to the analysis of the Federation, with the improvement of product strength and consumer acceptance, the demand for new energy vehicles is relatively firm. The expansion of Tesla, BYD and other production capacity provided stable support for the increase in sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year. The delivery cycle of mainstream products was shortened, and the situation of short supply continued to improve.
With the expiration of new energy subsidies at the end of the year, new energy manufacturers have increased their sales. To sum up, it is estimated that the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars in November will be 1.86 million, up 2.4% year-on-year and 0.9% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the retail sales of new energy are expected to reach 600,000 units, up 58.5% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 32.3%.