With the goal of 'carbon neutrality' put forward, China's policies related to carbon emission reduction have been accelerated, and energy structure transformation is imperative. New energy industries including new energy automobile industry chain, photovoltaic and wind power have also entered a period of rapid development. In the face of the recent adjustment of the new energy hot track in the market, institutional sources said that they are still firmly optimistic about the huge development space of the whole new energy industry, and the long-term growth logic is still strong. After the phase correction, a better layout opportunity may be ushered in. With the strong support of future policies, the scale of China's new energy market is developing rapidly, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise.

Industry prosperity is high, industrial chain welcomes layout opportunity

From the perspective of institutional layout, statistics from Donghai Fund show that as of the end of the second quarter, the allocation ratio of new energy funds to the upstream plate of new energy vehicles is the largest, accounting for 36.87%, followed by the middle reaches of new energy vehicles, accounting for 16.35%; The allocation ratio of photovoltaic panels is 14.47%; The allocation ratios of downstream new energy vehicles and wind power sectors are 6.30% and 4.07% respectively. Xie Jun, investment manager of Qianhai Fund, said that the whole new energy industry still has a huge development space in the future, and the layout of China's new energy industry chain is also relatively complete in the world. Even if the related companies in all links are placed in the world, they have top competitiveness. From a long-term perspective, China's new energy industry still has tenacious vitality and huge development space. The long-term growth logic is still strong, and the high probability of upward trend has not changed.

'Looking back at history, this round of adjustment is similar to that in the first quarter of 2022. The stock price decline reflects the concern about overcapacity in the midstream expansion plan. However, as the demand side continued to exceed expectations after the epidemic, the market raised its demand in 2022-2023, and the expectation of supply and demand reversed. The stock price of the midstream sector began to rebound rapidly in May. Since the third quarter, the monthly production schedule has continued to improve from the previous month, and the price reduction will not occur in the high boom cycle. It is expected that the short-term negative falsification will occur after the third quarterly report is expected to be clear. ' Zhu Yue, the new energy group of China Construction Investment Power, believes that.

Specifically, the domestic new energy automobile industry chain has developed strongly in recent years. 'The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show an obvious turning point in 2020. The penetration trend is highly similar to the development process of smart phones, and the market competition is fierce. Compared with the second stage of accelerated penetration of smart phones, it is estimated that the sales in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 will be 686,839,1013 and 11.72 million respectively, with a compound growth rate of about 20% in three years.' He Junyi, co-chief analyst of China Securities Automotive Industry, pointed out.

'From' early adoption' to' popularization', China's new energy market has entered the stage of sharp increase in S-shaped growth curve, optimistic about the continued expansion of the market.' CICC also stressed that the main driving force behind the current rapid growth of demand for new energy vehicles has been transformed from the policy-led policies such as subsidies and licenses to the release of individual demand supported by market-oriented supply-side product diversification and product competitiveness improvement. In addition, the supply-side products have blossomed more, the product structure has been 'exerted in the middle', and independent brands have risen. 'We believe that the market structure will shift from the current pattern of BYD, Tesla and the first-line car-making new forces to the pattern of' many super and many strong' of' traditional car companies' superior new energy brands, car-making new force brands and other cross-border leading brands', and drive new energy products to blossom more.'

CICC emphasizes that China's independent brands have maintained a strong market position by virtue of deep electric technology reserves, rapid vehicle iteration and intelligent empowerment of innovation breakthroughs in different domestic price bands. Under the background of the current great changes, we are optimistic that China's independent brands will gradually realize the breakthrough of the price ceiling and have the opportunity to grow into a global car company. Specifically, the first-line new power brands have experienced the product iteration period, which is expected to gradually realize a richer and healthier product matrix and stabilize the mid-to high-end new energy market; The independent new energy brands, new forces and cross-border cooperation brands of traditional car companies have all accelerated their efforts. On the one hand, the market of 100,000-300,000 yuan has been laid out through excellent product strength and price positioning, and the monthly sales level has been rapidly improved. On the other hand, they have actively invested in the research and development of intelligent cockpit and automatic driving, and gradually achieved a market breakthrough of more than 300,000 yuan, so as to achieve brand promotion.

To accelerate the penetration of the global market, domestic enterprises are constantly building a moat around the innovation of material system and structure. According to the new energy team of GF Electric Power, in recent years, Chinese enterprises have gradually realized their achievements, and accelerated the global technology export through the original solutions of material system innovation such as Ferrous lithium phosphate and structural innovation such as CTP, blade and JTM. Under the background of rising prices of raw materials, Chinese manufacturers also follow the innovation of quotation mechanism to improve profits, and deepen barriers through the vertical layout of the industrial chain, which is expected to form a comprehensive competitiveness for overseas battery companies. According to SNE data, in the first half of 2022, the installed capacity of global power batteries was 203.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 76.8%. Among the top ten, Chinese battery companies occupied 6 seats. Among them, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has an installed capacity of 5.8GWh, up 163.6% year-on-year, ranking eighth, with a global market share of 2.9%.

In addition to the new energy vehicle industry, thanks to the dual support of policies and markets, China's photovoltaic industry has continued to show a high prosperity in recent years. According to the mid-year report disclosed by A-share PV listed companies, the operating income and net profit of PV sector achieved rapid growth in the first half of the year, and many enterprises doubled their net profit, which made the overall performance of the industry bright. At the same time, the photovoltaic sector also gained a large proportion of asset allocation of new energy funds in the first half of the year.

Zhao Yuwen, an expert in the photovoltaic industry and independent director of Jingao Technology, said that the domestic photovoltaic industry occupies a leading position in the global new energy supply and plays a vital role. In the past 2-3 years, despite the epidemic situation, the soaring price of upstream raw materials also brought about the increase of component cost and price, but the growth rate of new installed capacity of global photovoltaic power generation remained at around 40%. In the short term, as the new production capacity of silicon materials is rapidly put into production and the effect is achieved, the supply of silicon materials begins to accelerate and the shortage of raw materials is expected to gradually ease; The new N-type battery technology is gradually mass-produced, which will steadily improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency, improve the product yield and cost performance, and will also continuously reduce the photovoltaic power generation cost. In addition, in addition to a large number of newly added distributed photovoltaic power plants in China, it will also stimulate the demand for rush installation at the end of the year represented by some centralized photovoltaic power plant projects. 'It is expected that the newly installed PV units in the second half of this year and the first half of next year will still be the scene of' triumphant progress'. In the next 3-5 years, with the further easing of supply chain shortage, mass production of new battery technologies, and falling component prices will further stimulate market demand. It is expected that the new installed capacity of global PV will continue to grow at a high speed. '

Production and sales continue to flourish, leading performance growth momentum is strong.

Under the background of high industry prosperity, the performance of leading enterprises in the field continues to be bright. The production capacity continued to climb, and the sales volume of various BYD models increased steadily from the previous month. According to BYD's latest August production and sales report, the company sold 175,000 new energy vehicles in that month, up 155.2% year-on-year and 8.0% month-on-month, continuing to hit a new monthly high. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles is 83,000, and that of plug-in vehicles is 91,000; 5,000 overseas new energy passenger cars were sold. On the whole, the company sold a total of 979,000 new energy vehicles in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 267.3%.

Orders are full and demand is strong, and BYD's interim report performance also exceeds market expectations. According to the financial report, the company achieved operating income of 83.782 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 67.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.38%. Under the influence of factors such as the early price adjustment and the scale effect, the company's profitability increased significantly in the second quarter, with a net profit of 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 244.74%. The net profit of non-return to mother was 2.515 billion yuan, up 458.60% year-on-year and 389.44% month-on-month.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Cheng Siqi, chief analyst of CITIC Jiantou Securities Automobile, said that BYD's main models for sale were listed in 2021 -2022, and most of them were in the sales climbing period or start-up period. With the subsequent new cars listed in 2022-2023, the sales volume has sustained high growth momentum. In addition, Tang DM-p and Tengshi D9 became explosive when they went public in August. The company successfully completed the overall layout of high-end brands, SUVs and MPV markets and achieved brand breakthrough. In terms of accelerating overseas layout, 'In the second half of 2022, the company made frequent moves in overseas layout, and successively entered many markets in Europe, Japan and Southeast Asia. In the future, it will accelerate globalization by virtue of high-end products and the experience of overseas buses, and is expected to become a leading enterprise in globalization.' Cheng Siqi thinks.

'We expect that the electrolyte shipment of Tianci Materials will exceed 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, and some new production capacity of the company will be put into operation in the third quarter. It is estimated that the electrolyte shipment will exceed 90,000 tons, with an increase of nearly 50% from the previous month, exceeding the industry growth rate (it is estimated that the domestic tram sales in Q3 will reach 2 million, with an increase of 40% from the previous month, and the overseas market will slightly increase from the previous month. It is estimated that the industry growth rate will be around 30% from the previous month), and the company's market share will continue Talking about the heaven-given materials in the lithium battery industry chain, China Merchants Securities Electric Power New Energy Tour Home Training Team believes that. According to the financial report, in the first half of the year, Tianci Materials realized revenue and deducted non-net profit of 10.363 billion yuan and 2.886 billion yuan respectively, up by 180% and 276% year-on-year. Among them, in the second quarter, revenue and deduction of non-net profit were 5.214 billion yuan and 1.392 billion yuan, up by 143.92% and 188.48% respectively.

According to the analysis of the family training team, in the third quarter, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate began to stabilize and rebound due to the price increase of lithium carbonate, and the market price of electrolyte gradually stabilized at around 65,000 yuan/ton. Considering the rising price of raw materials and the fact that the production cost of new lithium hexafluorophosphate in some industries is significantly higher than that of leading enterprises, it is expected that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will bottom out in stages. With the advantages of advanced technology (higher yield, lower unit CAPEX, better raw material layout)+perfect 'integration+circulation system' layout+lithium carbonate procurement, Tianci materials widened the cost gap with second-line factories, and gained the cost advantage beyond the industry. At the same time, in the third quarter, the company negotiated the supply price with major customers more frequently, and it is expected that the company will still maintain strong profitability.