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The new energy vehicle market is advancing rapidly, and Chinese auto enterprises welcome the good op

日期: 2021-12-24
浏览次数: 1

Thick green and red branches are a little, and the moving spring doesn't need much.

In 2021, in the 'cold winter' of the auto market, the booming new energy vehicle market will become a warm 'touch of spring'. Explosive growth in production and sales, rapid increase in penetration and transformation to demand driven... China's sales of new energy vehicles have topped the world for six consecutive years. While bringing profound changes to China's automobile industry, it has completely rewritten the pattern of the global automobile industry.

Looking forward to the future, new energy vehicles with great development potential will not only become an important starting point for promoting the 'double carbon' strategy, but also help China seize a new highland of global industrial competition. The strong supply chain guarantee capability will escort the long-term development of China's new energy vehicle market.

Strong driving force for the development of automobile market

Under the unfavorable environment of the sluggish auto market, the new energy vehicle market will show explosive growth momentum in 2021.

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, from January to November this year, automobile production and sales completed 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.5% and 4.5%. In contrast, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year.

In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the pace of replacing oil vehicles accelerated significantly. According to the data, as of November this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 12.7%, double the level of 5.4% at the beginning of the year.

Compared with the past, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 has a solid foundation: with the improvement of performance and the decline of cost, the new energy vehicle market is changing from policy driven to demand driven.

Different from the dominance of medium and high-end models in the European and American markets, China's new energy vehicle market presents a 'dumbbell' pattern. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, told China Securities Journal that the market strategy of new energy vehicle manufacturers has evolved into two paths: one is the high-end path of Tesla, BYD Han, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other brands; Second, A00 models launched by brands represented by Wuling Hongguang miniev and Euler black cat and white cat have rolled out sales in the low-end market.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passenger cars, believes that according to the sales data, the incremental proportion of market orientation is increasing compared with the policy orientation of the new energy vehicle market in 2021. Consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicle products has gradually increased, and the consumer market is expanding from first tier cities to second and third tier cities. At present, the overall cost of new energy vehicles is still higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, but there is great potential for price reduction. On the one hand, the continuous increase of battery capacity can lower the battery purchase price; On the other hand, corresponding products can be customized according to different use scenarios, so as to change the large and comprehensive existing structure, which is expected to reduce the cost of the whole vehicle.

After the rapid development of new energy vehicles in 2021, the future growth potential is still huge. Wang Chuanfu, chairman and President of BYD group, said that the electric vehicle products provided by Chinese car enterprises have surpassed the traditional fuel vehicles in terms of performance and cost. This year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market is expected to exceed 3.3 million. By the end of next year, the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles will exceed 35%.

Moreover, the rapid growth of new energy vehicle market in 2021 is achieved under the background of 'lack of core'. With the alleviation of 'lack of core', the pent up demand is expected to be fully released. Wanlian securities expects that with the gradual increase of automobile chip supply in wafer factories and the continuous operation of new factories, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will achieve the second stage of rapid growth from 2022 to 2023.

Rewrite the pattern of global automobile industry

The rapid growth of new energy vehicle market in 2021 has not only profoundly changed China's automobile industry, but also shaken the traditional pattern of the global automobile industry.

From the changes in the market value ranking of global vehicle listed enterprises in the past 20 years, the top ten have been occupied by traditional fuel vehicle enterprises, especially Toyota, which has steadily ranked first in the market value of global vehicle enterprises from 2001 to 2019. In recent years, the global electric vehicle enterprises led by Tesla have accelerated their rise. In 2017, Tesla ranked among the top 10 in the market value of global automobile enterprises for the first time. In 2020, it surpassed Toyota and ranked first in the market value of global automobile enterprises.

In the process of the sudden emergence of new energy vehicle enterprises, Chinese vehicle enterprises take the lead. According to the statistical data of companies market cap, among the top 20 global vehicle listed enterprises in terms of market value, 7 listed enterprises are Chinese automobile brands (BYD, great wall, Weilai, Xiaopeng, SAIC, ideal and Geely), 5 in the United States, 3 in Germany, 2 in Japan, and 1 in Italy, South Korea and the Netherlands respectively.

Behind the rapid rise of Chinese automobile enterprises is the continuous enhancement of the global competitiveness of China's new energy automobile industry. According to the data, since 2015, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has ranked first in the world for six consecutive years. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has not only become an important starting point for China to promote the 'double carbon' strategy, but also helped China seize a new highland of global industrial competition.

CITIC Securities believes that after the electrification of vehicles, China will realize the 'three electricity' system to 'change lanes and overtake'. Different from traditional fuel vehicles, the 'new three major parts' of electric vehicles have become three electric systems - batteries, motors and electronic controls. In the process of automobile electrification, China is at the forefront of the world. A large number of excellent enterprises have been cultivated in the field of core parts of new energy vehicles such as three electricity system, automotive electronics and intelligence, and are gradually accelerating the realization of global supporting. Take Tesla as an example, in addition to the traditional body, exterior decoration, interior decoration, chassis, etc, There are a large number of Chinese enterprises among the suppliers of three electric systems, automotive electronics and intelligent parts for some models (such as domestic model 3). Under the wave of mutual integration of vehicle electrification and intelligence, intelligent electric vehicles have become a new track, which provides 'lane changing overtaking' for Chinese car enterprises New development opportunities. After the electrification of cars, the backward technology situation of Chinese car enterprises in the era of fuel vehicles is gradually being rewritten. At present, in the field of new energy vehicles, Chinese car companies are leading overseas car companies in the understanding and application of electrification and intelligence, which can better meet customers' needs for new automotive products, new technologies and new functions.

Strengthen supply chain support capacity

In 2021, the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market is inseparable from the strong support of China's new energy vehicle industry chain. Looking back on 2021, from the most upstream lithium ore and lithium salt to the midstream battery materials and power batteries, the strong expansion of the whole new energy vehicle industry chain resonated with the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market.

In the global competition of new energy vehicle industry, Chinese enterprises are particularly outstanding in the field of power battery with the highest value of electric vehicles. According to SNE data, among the top 10 global power battery installed capacity enterprises from January to October 2021, 6 Chinese enterprises were listed, with a total market share of 47.1%. Ningde era has occupied the first place in the world for four consecutive years.

At the same time, Chinese enterprises continue to expand their leading edge in the global new energy vehicle industry chain through technology improvement and capacity expansion. For example, in 2021, Ningde times plans to raise 45 billion yuan for Fuding times lithium ion battery production base project, Guangdong Ruiqing times lithium ion battery production project phase I Jiangsu times power and energy storage lithium ion battery R & D and production project (phase IV), Ningde Jiaocheng times lithium ion power battery production base project, part of the funds are used for the R & D of advanced technologies such as sodium ion batteries.

China's new energy vehicle industry chain maintains a leading position in the world, escorts the further growth of China's new energy vehicles, and meets the huge demand of the global new energy vehicle market.

'Before the horses and chariots move, grain and grass go first.' Ping An Securities believes that the automobile industry is in a critical period of electric and intelligent transformation, and the adequacy and speed of 'grain and grass' reserves are one of the key factors for the development of automobile enterprises in an important window period.

Recently, the lithium battery industry chain has seen frequent fund-raising cases, including 12.8 billion yuan of Enjie, 4.9 billion yuan of Jiayuan technology, 6 billion yuan of Xingyuan material, etc. The reporter of China Securities Journal found that since 2021, 31 Listed Companies in the lithium battery industry have issued fixed growth plans, and the fund-raising is mainly used to expand production capacity and new technology research and development, involving lithium battery positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and other links.

As the 'blood' of new energy vehicles, lithium salt prices have risen sharply since 2021. In this context, relevant enterprises have strengthened the layout of upstream lithium mines. Taking Everest in Tibet as an example, in order to strengthen the control of lithium resources, the company plans to raise an additional 8 billion yuan for the construction project of extracting lithium from 50000 ton lithium carbonate salt lake of Argentina lithium potassium Co., Ltd., the 6 million ton mine mining and dressing / annual reconstruction and expansion project of Tazhong Mining Co., Ltd., and the lithium salt lake resource exploration project of Argentina Tosa Co., Ltd.


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