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China's smart car experience from manufacturing to creation

日期: 2021-12-16
浏览次数: 1

In 2021, China will not only become the largest contributor to global economic growth, but also hope to be the world's largest automobile consumer market.

 

According to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, China's automobile sales are expected to exceed 26 million in 2021, of which the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 3.4 million.

 

'The automobile industry is trying to overcome the impact of many adverse factors such as tight power supply and high raw material prices. In particular, the supply situation of vehicle specification chip improved in the fourth quarter, and the automobile production and sales showed a recovery trend.' Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, believes that the automobile production and marketing situation is generally good this year.

 

'This year's auto market is growing faster than expected, but it is in line with the logic of development. This is the result of technological progress, product enrichment and policy awesome forces.' Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice president of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, told reporters that since this year, the sales and penetration of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly month by month, and the market has entered a stage of explosive growth.

 

At the same time, the new energy vehicle market has also encountered a series of challenges, including the sustainable development of battery technology, industry and material resources, the interaction between fast charging and fast changing and vehicle network, green smart energy, etc. In the next 5 to 10 years, the new energy vehicle industry may undergo several rounds of reshuffle. It is still worth waiting to see who will win.

 

The window of intelligent electric vehicle industry has burst into intensive capital technology products

 

On December 1, as the head of the new power of domestic car making, car enterprises successively published their transcripts. In November, the delivery of new cars increased by more than 100% year-on-year. On the other side of the ocean, musk cashed out more than 10 billion US dollars in one month. Whether it is beautiful performance or the myth of wealth creation, it clearly points out the development direction of the 'new era of car making'.

 

The vast new energy vehicle market and the high market value of listed automobile enterprises have attracted countless capital competition. According to the innovation diffusion theory, when the market share of innovative products exceeds a certain proportion, with the continuous improvement of new technology maturity, the continuous decline of supply chain cost, the continuous cultivation of consumption habits and the continuous growth of surrounding ecology, innovative products will enter a period of rapid growth.

 

In 2021, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 400000 for the first time. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is close to 20%, and the best time window for entering the intelligent electric vehicle industry has come.

 

In this context, a new round of intelligent electric vehicle 'hot' comeback. This year, many players from outside the circle, such as Xiaomi, Baidu, oppo, apple, 360 and Mavericks electric, have come one after another. In the eyes of investors in the capital market, whether it is the traditional automobile industry or the ICT (information and communication technology) industry represented by smart phones, the imagination space in the future has narrowed, and the cross-border change to the field of intelligent electric vehicles has become the most urgent choice for capital.

 

'Under the dual carbon goal, new energy vehicles have become the ultimate goal of the development of the automobile industry.' In an interview with reporters, Zhang Hong, Secretary General of the new energy branch of China Automobile Circulation Association, said that after China has proposed a carbon neutralization deadline, the development of intelligent new energy vehicles has become the only choice.

 

In the past two years, the in-depth changes in automobile R & D, supply chain, manufacturing, after-sales service and other fields brought by electrification are rapidly leveling the above threshold. On Hon Hai Technology Day held in October this year, Hon Hai Group founder Gou Taiming drove an electric car to the scene and said with emotion: 'this is the best birthday gift I have received since I was 71 years old'.

 

For Foxconn, the new car release is also the best gift received on the road of transformation. The rise of the professional OEM model represented by Foxconn has changed the asset heavy attribute of the traditional automobile industry, so that Apple's asset light and high profit model in the smartphone field can be replicated in the automobile industry. At the same time, driven by the tide of intelligence and networking, cars are now being given a new form - software definition, data-driven, remote iteration, user operation, etc., forming a good coupling with the natural long board of ICT enterprises.

 

Although the capital is promising, the timing is just right, the technical personnel are complete and the users are very popular, there are many challenges for cross-border investors to succeed in the field of intelligent electric vehicles. For example, the product definition of the first model should be made at least 24 months in advance, and the planning of subsequent 1 to 2 products should be formulated.

 

The entry of more and more excellent enterprises has accelerated the fission of the intelligent electric vehicle industry and created more opportunities for cross-border investors. How to innovate and change to bring better products and experience? How to redefine the manufacturing, sales, service and profit model of the automobile industry and open up a new path in user operation? Both industry and consumers expect cross-border investors to give a satisfactory answer.

 

'Lack of core' breaks the inertia of supplier selection, and local chip enterprises meet major opportunities

 

If one word is used to make a footnote for the automobile industry in 2021, 'lack of core' is undoubtedly the most appropriate.

 

Affected by the epidemic, the shortage of chips has led to tight supply and demand in the automotive industry since the end of last year. This year's earthquake in Northeast Japan, the cold wave in the central and southern United States, and the global chip manufacturer Renesas electronics fire all made the automobile chip production even worse.

 

The 'roller coaster' delivery of Weilai automobile in recent months is precisely a true portrayal of the development of the automobile industry this year. Affected by the shortage of chips, Weilai automobile first survived the continuous downturn in July and August this year, and the delivery volume rushed to 10628 in September. However, the delivery volume fell 65.5% month on month in October; In November, the delivery volume increased by 105.6% year-on-year, reaching a new high of monthly delivery. Li Bin, founder and CEO of Weilai automobile, said in an interview with reporters that the company had the ability to produce 10000 electric vehicles per month in the first quarter of this year, but the delivery volume was frozen due to the global chip shortage and battery supply constraints.

 

'On the one hand, it is the 'blowout' of the smart new energy vehicle market, on the other hand, it is the pressure of the supply chain and other aspects everywhere. In the end, the hard won sales volume has exceeded 10000 continuously. If you are not involved in it, it is difficult to understand the taste.' Facing the test of chip supply interruption, Li Pengcheng, vice president of Xiaopeng automobile and general manager of brand public relations, also expressed with emotion.

 

For a long time, automobile suppliers have great selection inertia. If an enterprise can successfully enter the supplier list of automobile enterprises, it will usually get a steady stream of orders. The premise of becoming a global well-known vehicle enterprise supplier is to pass the component certification of AEC organization.

 

AEC is the abbreviation of the automotive electronics Committee of the United States. It is led by Chrysler, Ford and general motors, the three major car companies in North America. In the context of weak R & D foundation, it is very difficult for Chinese car gauge chip enterprises to obtain the recognition of world-famous car enterprises. In the absence of industrial chain support, the blind research and development of vehicle specification chips is difficult to achieve economic benefits for Chinese automobile enterprises. Therefore, for a long time, domestic chip enterprises have developed and produced basic products with low technical added value, which is difficult to become suppliers of major international automobile manufacturers and lack opportunities for continuous iteration.

 

The lack of core storm has unexpectedly given Chinese chip enterprises the opportunity to catch up with international advanced chip enterprises. 'New energy vehicles use a brand-new power system, which has narrowed the gap between global players, and everyone has almost returned to the same starting line.' Automotive industry analyst Zhang Xiaoguang said that electrification is only the first step of new energy vehicles. Lack of core is not a problem that can be solved in a short time. With the increasing demand, it is bound to need new production capacity to solve it, which provides us with new development opportunities.

 

In September last year, the 'China Automotive chip industry innovation strategic alliance' led by the Ministry of science and technology and the Ministry of industry and information technology and jointly composed of more than 70 enterprises and institutions was officially established, which shows the state's attention to the development of automotive chips.

 

Qiu Yujing, CEO of Xinchi technology, told the Securities Daily that after experiencing the storm of lack of core, automobile enterprises and Tier1 paid unprecedented attention to the safety and flexibility of the supply chain and began to pay more attention to Chinese enterprises. Chinese local chip enterprises have prominent advantages in decision-making, rapid response and local support. They not only have more accurate insight into the needs of Chinese customers, but also output customized products that are more in line with the use needs and habits from the perspective of customers, highlighting the advantages of differentiated development.

 

The carbon trading market reaches trillion yuan, and new energy vehicle enterprises sell 'carbon' in disguise

 

The national carbon market was officially opened this year, and a market blueprint of trillion yuan was slowly launched. Low carbon industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic have been given unlimited imagination by the market. It is generally believed in the industry that it will take time for the road transportation industry to be included in the carbon trading market, but the double point policy of the automobile industry has taken the rudiment of carbon trading marketization.

 

More and more traditional car companies are actively deploying in the field of new energy vehicles, laying the foundation for generating more positive points of new energy vehicles. The leaders in the transformation of traditional auto enterprises and the new forces in car manufacturing have become the biggest winners in obtaining positive points for new energy vehicles.

 

On July 15 this year, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the General Administration of Market Supervision announced the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises in 2020. Data show that among the 138 passenger car enterprises, 11 have 'double points' of more than 100000, including Tesla, BYD and other new energy vehicle enterprises; There are 71 enterprises with negative points, accounting for 60%, and they have become a large 'buy points' under the 'double points' policy.

 

'In the fourth quarter of last year, the gross profit of carbon point sales was 120 million yuan, contributing 1.8% to the gross profit margin.' Qu Yu, chairman of Shanghai Weilai Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., told reporters. According to Li Bin, Weilai generated 200000 positive points last year, and more income can be obtained by selling points.

 

The reporter learned that although the integral scale of new car building forces is small, they are all net income, which is very considerable for new car building enterprises in the loss stage. According to the Research Report of industrial securities, the current trading price of new energy points has increased from the initial 300 yuan / min to 500 yuan / min to 2500 yuan / min to 3000 yuan / min, and will even exceed 6000 yuan / min in 2022. Even if converted according to the unit price of 3000 yuan / min, Tesla's 860300 new energy points obtained in 2020 are worth up to 2.58 billion yuan; BYD and SAIC GM Wuling have integral values of 2.262 billion yuan and 1.32 billion yuan respectively; If four new car making forces, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima and ideal, sell all their points, they can get 600 million yuan, 330 million yuan, 300 million yuan and 210 million yuan respectively.

 

As of December this year, SAIC GM Wuling has locked the sales champion of new energy vehicles in 2021 in advance, and the sales performance of Tesla and BYD is far ahead of other car companies. This means that the above three auto companies have locked hundreds of thousands of trading and rising integral rights and interests in advance.

 

Point trading not only brings rich income to the new forces of car making, but also brings great business pressure to negative point car enterprises. 'With the continuous rise in the integral price of new energy vehicles, the six major automobile enterprises and groups have generally increased losses. Taking Chang'an group as an example, last year, the single vehicle profit was reduced by about 4000 yuan due to the double integral gap.' Zhu Huarong, chairman of Chang'an Automobile, said in an interview at the beginning of the year.

 

'The EU has imposed a carbon tax on high emission automotive products and asked for a carbon footprint statement for automotive batteries.' In Zhang Xiaoguang's view, labor pains are inevitable, but in order to achieve high-quality economic development and not be subject to new trade rules in the future, automobile enterprises must strictly adhere to the manufacturing requirements of low-carbon or even zero carbon.


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