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New energy vehicles will usher in explosive growth

日期: 2021-12-10
浏览次数: 1

On December 2, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice president of the China Electric Vehicle Association, predicted that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles could reach about 3.3 million this year at the media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicle Association; In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 5 million, and the market share will exceed 20%. He said that this is still a conservative prediction made under the condition of being subject to batteries, chips and production capacity. If it depends entirely on demand, the data will be higher.

'China's new energy vehicle industry is about to enter a new stage of market-oriented development.' This is the new definition of the new energy vehicle industry by the 100 people's meeting of China's electric vehicles after 10 years of development.

 

The market is hotter than expected

Ouyang Minggao made the above expectations against the background of the current hot new energy vehicle industry.

It is reported that the sales volume of several new energy vehicle enterprises increased by more than 100% in November, reaching a record high. 'Now the new energy vehicle market has entered a steep growth period, the main reason for the market is technological progress, product enrichment, policy awesome. Although it is beyond expectations, it is logical.' Ouyang Minggao said that the role of subsidies on consumption is gradually fading, and the proportion of private car purchases based on market consumption has risen to nearly 75%.

Zhang Yongwei, vice president and Secretary General of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, analyzed that China's new energy vehicle industry has entered a new stage. In recent years, the new energy vehicle industry has experienced a development stage from policy driven to policy and market two wheel drive. With the decline of vehicle purchase subsidies next year, consumers' demand and acceptance of electric vehicles have entered a new stage dominated by the market, which is a milestone node in the development of new energy vehicles.

In the past 10 years, new energy vehicles have developed from scratch, never received attention to a hundred schools of thought, from short endurance and slow charging to entering the era of long endurance, slow charging and fast charging and changing electricity. Today's new energy vehicles are injecting fresh blood into the automotive industry with a thin trend.

'Since this year, the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly month by month. In the first 11 months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to be close to 3 million, and the overall sales volume of the whole year is expected to reach 3.3 million.' Ouyang Minggao analyzed that according to the experience of S-shaped growth curve, the global automobile electrification has broken through the critical point and entered a steep growth period.

Ouyang Minggao predicts that by 2025, China's annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7 million to 9 million; It may reach 17 million to 19 million vehicles in 2030. In terms of the number of new energy vehicles, it will exceed 30 million in 2025, close to 100 million in 2030, close to 200 million in 2035 and close to 300 million in 2040.

 

Focus on low carbon Intelligent Networking

At the just concluded Guangzhou auto show, vehicle enterprises launched models loaded with intelligent network equipment such as solid-state lidar, ultra-high definition camera, millimeter wave radar and long-range ultrasonic sensor. Many booths also exhibit cutting-edge vehicle technologies, including intelligent cockpit, intelligent vehicle operating system, visual interaction, face recognition, voice artificial intelligence, intelligent wearable device interconnection and so on.

Especially in outdoor venues, some car companies brought autonomous vehicles to the scene for the audience to experience. The landing of autonomous vehicles on the road marks the gradual formation of the intelligent networking industry chain around autonomous driving. Intelligent networking products have become the focus of industrial competition, and the new era of change will begin again.

In this regard, Chen Qingtai, chairman of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, said that the first half of the automobile revolution was electrification, but not limited to electrification. In this process, it provided many opportunities for other industries, especially high-tech industries, and promoted the automobile industry to accelerate the transformation from electrification to low-carbon, networked and intelligent.

Chen Qingtai believes that the current high-end chip market, such as automotive AI chips and other products, has not solidified its production capacity, and the networked and intelligent industrial chain has not solidified. 'Therefore, China has made the core parts related to networked and intelligent sensors and radars global, or even the highest level in the world'.

In his view, globally, China's networked and intelligent level is not backward. China accounts for about 30% of global automobile production and sales, and is the world's largest producer and consumer. Therefore, for the automobile industry, the industrial chain problem may be more important. The impact of the epidemic not only has a great impact on the automobile industry, but also brings opportunities.

'It is certainly wrong to close up, but the safety of the industrial chain should be guaranteed. How to properly grasp the balance between the two is a very important issue.' Chen Qingtai pointed out that the story of chip restriction cannot be repeated in terms of sensors and radar. Networking and intelligent parts will bring great benefits to the safety of the industrial chain. For example, a number of high-level companies have grown up and can produce the world's leading core parts. In this way, even if the key parts are 'stuck', they have the strength to crack them by exchange.

 

International brand competition

At present, China's new energy vehicles maintain a good development momentum in terms of market scale and development quality. The private consumption market continues to grow, sinks and the market potential is gradually released. China's automobile market has become a competitive place for global automobile enterprises.

At the Guangzhou auto show, the lineup of joint venture new energy was stronger than last year. According to the statistics of the Organizing Committee of Guangzhou auto show, the total number of vehicles at this Guangzhou auto show reached 1020, and 241 new energy vehicles were exhibited by domestic and foreign exhibitors, including 88 foreign brand exhibition vehicles.

'Since the beginning of this year, the world's major brand automobile enterprises have successively entered China's new energy vehicle market. In terms of fuel vehicles, China is a global competitive market. Now China's new energy vehicle market has evolved from mainly Chinese automobile enterprises to global automobile enterprises.' Chen Qingtai said.

Ouyang Minggao also expressed the same view. He believes that all joint ventures will make collective efforts in the next year, and the competition between Chinese and foreign brand new energy vehicles will enter a fierce period in 2023.

International brands have carried out electric transformation one after another. Fortunately, China's new energy brands have been laid out in advance. Last year, when the Chinese brand Chinese express launched the 600000 yuan Gaohe hiphi x, many people felt incredible; This year, people seem to be used to the high-end of China's own brand electric vehicles.

Ouyang Minggao said that from the perspective of core technology, domestic brands have strength. The first is battery technology, which accounts for 60% of the technical content of electric vehicles. At present, this generation of battery technology is dominant in China; Secondly, compared with foreign countries, electric drive and power electronics are generally comparable, and the technical strength of some automobile enterprises is relatively leading in the world.

From the perspective of supply chain, China's power battery industry chain is complete. 70% of the global battery production capacity is in China, and the products are supplied to the world. Of course, chip supply has become a problem recently, but automotive chips only account for about 10% of all chips. At present, it is mainly a cyclical imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, automotive chip integration requirements are lower than mobile phones and other products. In the medium term, China's independent technology is not difficult to solve the problem of new energy vehicle chips.

From the perspective of vehicle brands, the outbreak of new energy vehicles is a challenge to old brands and an opportunity to new brands. The vigorous development of the new force in the past few years has also created a new world of China's new energy vehicle independent brand in the brand image.

From the perspective of enterprises, the rise of new energy vehicles has triggered a technological revolution in the automotive industry. Independent brand enterprises are innovative and enterprising, the new car making force is full of vitality, and the joint venture is ready to make full efforts. In the next five years, the market will grow rapidly and the competition will continue to be fierce.

Ouyang Minggao said that the upgrading of independent brands is much better than expected. 'It is expected that Chinese brands will account for 60% of the Chinese market in 2030 under the new wave of electrification and intelligence.'


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