Over the next decade, Germany will increase its investment in climate protection by billions of euros.
59 days after the German Bundestag election, the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic party finally reached a consensus on a joint ruling agreement.
On the afternoon of the 24th local time, Scholz, the candidate Prime Minister of the Social Democratic Party, the Vice Chancellor and finance minister of Germany, habek and belburke, the two chairmen of the green party, and Lindner, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, officially announced the above agreement. They will also form a 'traffic light' ruling coalition for the first time (from their respective party representatives).
Scholtz said that the new German federal government cabinet will strengthen Germany's position in the global economy and lead Germany to a greener and more digital direction. 'We have decided that this will lead German investment in the next decade,' he said.
At present, the three political parties still need to approve the joint ruling agreement. If it can be successfully passed, Scholtz is expected to come to power within a week from December 6.
Greener, more digital
Climate and energy, and science and technology are the most mentioned industries in the joint governance agreement. In terms of climate and energy, the joint governance agreement hopes that Germany will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2045; By 2030, 80% of Germany's electricity will come from renewable energy; Ideally, coal power will be stopped before 2030; By 2030, ensure that at least 15 million electric vehicles will be on the road in Germany.
Compared with the current federal government, the energy transformation goal of the joint governance agreement is more radical. The previous goal was that by 2030, 65% of Germany's electricity would come from renewable energy; Coal power will be stopped before 2038. At present, 40% of Germany's electricity comes from renewable energy.
The above-mentioned agreement mentioned that in order to achieve the new goals, the five major industries of power, transportation, industry, construction and agriculture must accelerate decarbonization, and Germany will increase its investment in climate protection by billions of euros. The joint governance agreement seeks to combine economic development and ecological responsibility, and creates a super department for economic and climate affairs. Habek, CO chairman of the green party, is expected to become the 'leader' of this super department.
Kai Neuber, an analyst working for a new energy consulting company in Germany, told the first financial reporter that in the future, Germany's photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and energy storage industries are expected to welcome good conditions again, and the policy certainty of the electric vehicle market will continue to strengthen. However, given that Germany will withdraw from coal power and nuclear power at the same time, if the supply of renewable energy is weak, Germany's energy transformation will face challenges. In rural Germany, wind energy enterprises often encounter public opposition, and the power grid capacity transmitted from north to south in Germany is expected to be strengthened, which also restricts the process of energy transformation.
Liao Yu, director of the smart energy center of Tsinghua Strait Research Institute, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that climate change is one of the topics most concerned by the people during the German election. The Social Democratic Party and the green party favor this issue, which is one of the reasons for their high support. In the future, whether the German electric vehicle market can gradually shift from policy driven to market driven depends on the digestibility of the market. On the supply side, it is necessary to observe whether car enterprises can continue to supply more electric vehicle models. On the demand side, we need to observe consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles.
The same priority in the joint governance agreement is 'comprehensive digital breakthrough', which promises to create a digital country and formulate new strategies on artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. To achieve this goal, the new federal government will increase its support for new and start-ups.
In an email sent to the first financial reporter, Marc Rohr, head of the digital and Service Department of the German Federal Foreign Trade and investment agency, believed that the business community could expect the new government to vigorously promote digitization. 'We are talking about 5g, the comprehensive extension of high-speed Internet and mobile phone services, measures to reduce energy costs through digitization, and new incentives and financing plans for highly innovative and sustainable digital business models.'
How to affect Sino German relations?
Scholtz said at the press conference that European Strategic Autonomy is the cornerstone of Germany's future foreign policy, which means that Germany will be more independent on international issues such as energy and security.
In terms of major bilateral relations, Scholtz stressed the partnership between Germany, France and Germany and the United States, and also mentioned in particular that Germany has special ties with the United States. However, a foreign media adviser to Scholz said that Germany may not rely too much on the United States in diplomacy.
In terms of personnel, Burke is expected to become Germany's first female foreign minister.
As for the potential trend of China Germany relations in the future, Feng Zhongping, director and researcher of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that although the Social Democratic Party has been in power as a coalition party for many years and its China policy is relatively clear and stable, it is difficult to maintain its China Policy under the multiple pressures of Germany, the European Union and the United States.
'In addition, the Green Party has a strong ideological color and has a more biased understanding of China. The party will not only enter the new federal government, but Burke is also expected to serve as the new foreign minister, which may bring challenges to China Germany relations. However, during Merkel's administration, the Green Party has always been an opposition party, and its attitude may be adjusted if it officially takes power,' he said.
Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Research Center of Tongji University, previously said in an interview with the first financial reporter that in the new federal government, the Social Democratic Party is expected to continue its pragmatic foreign policy policy policy, but the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party may have different voices. The direction of the foreign policy of the new German federal government in the future depends on the control ability of the Social Democratic Party.
He believes that in Sino German relations, the Social Democratic Party has a friendly policy towards China and is expected to continue its position of dialogue and coordination with China. The risk point may be that the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party will show more tough stance on China policy. Germany may be closer to the United States, but because Germany and the EU are not willing to blindly follow the United States and damage their own core interests, they continue to emphasize strategic autonomy, and Germany probably will not choose sides between China and the United States.