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When the United States and Europe bet on new energy vehicles

日期: 2021-10-26
浏览次数: 1

With the vigorous development of a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform, and the accelerated integration of automobile and related technologies in energy, transportation, communication and other fields, new energy vehicles have become the main direction of the transformation and development of the global automobile industry.

 

At present, the United States and Europe are upgrading the development of new energy vehicle industry into a national strategy, aiming to master the production of key parts and technology research and development, reduce external dependence and establish a localized supply chain.

 

Some analysts believe that this move may lead to increased industrial competition between China, the United States and Europe, intensified competition for international mineral resources, the weakness of China's new energy vehicles controlled by others and difficulties in developing overseas markets.

 

Biden's executive order

The Biden administration of the United States is increasing policy support to upgrade the development of new energy vehicle industry into a national strategy.

On August 5, Biden signed an executive order to formulate stricter fuel efficiency and emission standards, which forced the demand for new energy vehicles. The goal is that the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States will account for 50% by 2030. Specific initiatives include:

 

First, build a nationwide electric vehicle charging network, provide sales incentives and tax incentives. The infrastructure plan launched by the United States in March this year covers us $174 billion in investment in the new energy vehicle industry, including sales discounts and tax incentives, the construction of 500000 charging piles by 2030, school bus bus and electrification of federal fleet, etc.

 

Second, master the production of key parts and establish a localized supply chain. The executive order clearly states that in order to provide financial support for the restructuring and expansion of the supply chain of new energy vehicles in the United States, key parts of new energy vehicles such as power batteries and chips must be 'made in the United States'. Among them, chip is an advantageous field in the United States, but the capacity gap of power battery is large. In June, the U.S. Energy Administration issued the national lithium battery blueprint 2021-2030, which is optimistic about the market prospect of lithium batteries, and hopes to formulate a federal policy framework to encourage the development of relevant manufacturing industries such as local electrodes, battery cells and battery packs, and support the construction of local lithium battery material and technology supply chain.

 

Europe continues to overweight

European guiding policies continued to increase and continue to stimulate the production and marketing of new energy vehicles.

 

According to the goal of the European Green New Deal, 30 million new energy vehicles will be sold by 2030, internal combustion engine vehicles will be banned by 2035, and European countries will further advance the prohibition time. At the same time, the EU has set stricter automobile exhaust emission regulations and increased fines, and member states have also implemented preferential policies of high subsidies for new energy vehicles within a specific period of time. These policies promoted the sales of EU new energy vehicles to more than 1 million in the first half of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 157%.

 

The EU has also invested heavily to supplement the power battery industry chain. The EU regards the power battery industry as a key strategic industry. In order to reduce external dependence, it has actively laid out the power battery industry in recent years. Breaking through the constraints of 'fair market' and 'competition policy', the EU has mostly formed the 'Airbus class' European battery Alliance (EBA) and implemented the 'European battery strategic action plan' to promote the R & D and innovation of the whole value chain of batteries in the way of countries and enterprises. 38 super battery factories have been built or are under construction.

 

In addition, the EU has implemented diversified technical route selection, taking into account the development of hydrogen energy vehicles more suitable for the future. The European Union and 14 member states, including Germany and France, have formulated hydrogen energy plans and plan to invest about 470 billion euros in the hydrogen energy industry in the next 30 years. Among them, hydrogen fuel cell, as a widely used energy carrier, can not only be used as the basis of synthetic fuel, but also as a medium for storing renewable energy. New energy vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells have the advantages of safety, convenience, high endurance and zero emission. Some voices in Europe believe that hydrogen energy vehicles are the best technical path and 'ultimate solution' to achieve carbon neutralization.

 

Actively respond to challenges

On the whole, the United States and Europe are actively betting on the new energy vehicle industry, which will make China face no small challenges.

First, the international competition for mineral resources will intensify. Power batteries in various countries are heavily dependent on cobalt mineral resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa and lithium mineral resources in Australia, Chile and Argentina. In recent years, affected by the increase of international sales of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity and demand of power batteries have increased, and the competition among international battery enterprises has intensified. Both the United States and Europe have policy propositions and action practices to make up for the short board of power battery, and its expansion of production capacity will form an inevitable trend of rising raw material prices.

 

Coupled with the relative lack of relevant mineral resources in China, the power battery industry will bear greater cost and competitive pressure.

Second, although China's production and sales of new energy vehicles are large and promising, the United States and Europe monopolize key parts and core technologies. The advantages of hardware, software and tool chain make it maintain its advantageous position in the upstream of the industrial chain for a long time. The short board problem of 'hardware, software and tool chain' of China's new energy vehicles may erupt intensively.

 

The hardware is controlled by others. Special chips such as on-board controller, camera and radar heavily rely on foreign suppliers such as Infineon, NXP, Renesas, Intel and NVIDIA.

 

The software is highly monopolized, and the on-board basic operating system, security operating system and security communication technology are monopolized by American and European oligarchs such as victor, earning high added value.

 

The cost of tool chain is high, and the cost of basic R & D tools such as drawing tools, simulation tools and testing tools is large. These short boards may be further amplified in the industrial competition with the United States and Europe in the future, which is a potential field for the United States and Europe to 'neck' China.

 

It may become more and more difficult for China's new energy vehicles to develop overseas markets. Although China's export of new energy vehicles has reached record highs, the 'main force' is Tesla cars produced in China. Chinese domestic brands are subject to foreign technical and environmental protection standards, license application, brand awareness, safety and other factors, and are not widely recognized in the US and European markets.

 

The main markets of foreign new energy vehicles are occupied by Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Tesla, Volvo, Renault, Kia and other brands. With the United States and Europe actively betting on the development of new energy vehicle industry, Chinese domestic brands will face more fierce market competition and protective restrictions in overseas markets.

 

Hydrogen energy vehicles in the United States and Europe may widen the development gap. At present, China is mainly betting on lithium battery vehicles, and the investment in hydrogen energy vehicles is relatively insufficient. Lithium batteries have the problems of resource dependence, environmental pollution and low conversion rate. Hydrogen energy vehicles use 'green hydrogen' produced by electrolyzing water from renewable energy as energy storage, which is one of the solutions to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization.

 

Under the trend that both the United States and Europe have launched the hydrogen energy strategy, it is not ruled out that the cost of hydrogen energy vehicles will be reduced in the future, which will become the mainstream development path of new energy vehicles. China may fall into a 'technology trap' and face huge transformation costs.

 

The development of new energy vehicles is a global consensus to achieve economic growth, transformation and upgrading and carbon neutrality. China needs to closely follow the trends of relevant industries in the United States and Europe, supplement its development weaknesses by accelerating the expansion of international business of mineral resources, accelerating investment in industrial basic R & D, strengthening the ties of international production capacity cooperation of new energy vehicles, and realizing diversified development path layout, based on seizing international mineral resources, overcoming 'bottleneck' technology, developing overseas markets and implementing diversified layout, Actively seize the highland of a new round of global industrial competition.


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