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New energy vehicles penetrate the market beyond expectations and migrate to intelligence

日期: 2021-12-20
浏览次数: 2

2021 is a year when new energy vehicles really come into public view. 'Starting volume' is the core logic running through the whole plate. It can be seen by the naked eye that there are more green cars on the road, accompanied by the comprehensive catch-up of the market value of new energy vehicle enterprises to traditional vehicle enterprises; 'Ningwang' waved the flag, and the price of lithium battery materials soared with the company's share price. From a qualitative point of view, it will be the next lesson for car enterprises to supplement products, battery innovation technology and jointly lay infrastructure in the whole industry.

Looking forward to next year, the market will focus on the intelligent process. Although there was a voice calling for the opening of the second half of intelligence at this time last year, the curtain has just opened. Intellectualization will not only become the key competitive point of vehicle manufacturers and truly implement the business model of software revenue, but also bring incremental revenue to parts and components and become the gold digger of the next round of capital.

New energy vehicle

Open the era of popularization

The popularity of new energy vehicles has exceeded market expectations this year. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was close to 3 million. In November, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, and the annual penetration rate was expected to reach 13%, ahead of the policy target of 20% in 2025.

More importantly, the driving force of high growth does not come from policy factors. It is generally believed in the industry that 2021 is the first year for the real marketization of new energy vehicles. Cui Yan, chief analyst of the automotive industry of Huaxi Securities, said at the recent teleconference conference that this year, new energy vehicles have gradually changed from policy driven to supply driven, and the supply side auto enterprises have launched more and more high-quality models, thus driving the sales increase.

Some head car companies have preempted to occupy a place. According to the data of the ride Federation, from January to November this year, the top three new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of sales volume were BYD, SAIC GM Wuling and Tesla China, with cumulative sales of 490000, 380000 and 250000 respectively. The total sales volume of these three automobile enterprises has accounted for 1 / 3 of the total sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles. Three new car manufacturers competed, and the sales of 'xiaoweili' were 82000, 80000 and 76000 respectively.

It is worth noting that the current popular models present a 'dumbbell body' at the upper and lower ends in positioning, and the mainstream models in the range of 100000 yuan to 200000 yuan need to be filled. In the first 11 months of this year, Tesla Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang miniev occupied the medium and high-end market of 250000 yuan and the low-end market of 30000 ~ 50000 yuan respectively.

Many auto companies have targeted the middle of the 'spindle' market and may start the popularization of new energy vehicles next year. Take Weilai automobile as an example. Weilai, which has always been a high-profile brand, is brewing a new brand for the mass market. It plans to release three new models in 2022, one of which will be the lowest priced model in the whole series.

In terms of categories, the industry expects hybrid vehicles to usher in an outbreak. Li Jinyong, executive president of the chamber of Commerce of auto dealers of all China Federation of industry and commerce, believes that the original market's understanding of plug-in hybrid is a transitional product, especially in cities with limited licenses. However, according to the data from January to October this year, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles in non restricted cities accounted for 56%, higher than that in the previous two years, which is mainly due to the maturity of technology and the promotion of products. With the launch of BYD DM-I and other key products, it is expected that the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 1.2 million in 2022.

Lithium battery is in short and medium term shortage

For the middle and upper reaches lithium battery enterprises, 'price increase', 'shortage' and 'production expansion' are the key words in 2021. The rapid growth of vehicle sales has rapidly tightened the chord of the whole industrial chain, and the strong demand is transmitted upward layer by layer, giving birth to supply anxiety. In particular, lithium has become a hot resource.

Power battery is the core of electrification. There is a structural shortage of market supply and insufficient supply of high-end production capacity. AVIC securities estimates that given the assumptions of new energy vehicle penetration of 18.7%, single vehicle charging capacity of 58.5kwh, inventory level of 80% and capacity utilization rate of 70% in 2025, combined with the planned capacity of major global power battery manufacturers exceeding 2500gwh in 2025, there will still be a capacity gap of more than 300gwh.

At the same time, the market trend of power battery is strengthened. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, from January to November this year, Ningde times ranked first in loading volume, accounting for 51.4%, BYD, China Innovation Airlines (formerly known as AVIC lithium battery) and GuoXuan high tech accounted for 16.6%, 5.8% and 5.1% respectively. The top ten enterprises with installed capacity have occupied 90% of the market.

In order to ensure market share, leading enterprises have stepped up capacity expansion. In its recent reply to the inquiry letter of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Ningde Times said that according to the current market share, the company's design capacity should reach at least 520gwh by 2025; China Innovation Airlines recently announced that the production capacity is planned to be 500gwh in 2025 and 1twh in 2030; Honeycomb energy has raised its capacity planning target three times this year, and the most recent one is set to challenge 600gwh in 2025.

Power battery manufacturers are strongly optimistic about the future market space. Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei lithium energy, recently publicly said that global electrification has been determined by market, policy and technology. The current expansion is an expansion in a deterministic state, not a blind expansion in an uncertain state. Liu Jingyu, chairman of China Innovation airlines, made a more direct statement: 'if the scale does not go up, how can we take the lead? If the speed is too slow, it will become the biggest risk at this stage.'

The power battery further drives the demand for lithium battery materials, and all kinds of materials are booming. According to the statistics of xinlune lithium battery, from January to November this year, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate with the highest increase increased by four times, and the prices of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate also increased by 295% and 284%. Xinlun lithium analysts expect that the competition for the mine will be more intense next year, and some lithium battery material links will still face shortage, mainly including diaphragm and copper foil subject to high-quality production capacity at the equipment end, as well as negative pole links subject to high-energy graphitization.

In this context, car enterprises and power battery factories have extended their hands to the upstream links, and the trend of industrial chain integration has been strengthened. 'By binding battery factories, car enterprises, on the one hand, ensure the stability of the supply of core parts, on the other hand, they can also walk with the times in battery technology. In the long run, lithium batteries must have me in you and you in me.' Li Jigang, general manager of Tianjin strand Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the securities times.

The shortage of upstream resources also forces the technological innovation of battery materials. Ningde times released sodium ion batteries in the middle of the year and plans to basically form an industrial chain by 2023. The birth of sodium batteries directly responds to the shortage of lithium resources, but there is still a distance from actual commercialization and will be limited to areas with low energy density requirements. In addition, high nickel ternary, lithium manganese iron phosphate, solid-state battery and other schemes emerge one after another. The industry believes that different technical routes are not substitutes, but coexist in different application scenarios.

Multiple measures to supplement energy need to be improved

The development of new energy vehicles not only depends on the progress of vehicles and batteries, but also the improvement of charging and changing infrastructure. During this year's national day, electric vehicles travel across provinces and encounter a long queue of charging stations, which reflects that the battery life is enough to support the public to go out of the province on the one hand, and exposes the shortcomings of energy supplement facilities on the other hand.

In terms of quantity, charging facilities are spreading rapidly with the development of electric vehicles. According to the data of China charging alliance, from January to November this year, the increment of charging infrastructure was 704000 units, and the increment ratio of pile car was 1:4.2; Among them, the increment and growth rate of private charging piles were ahead of that of public charging piles, with an increment of 420000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 198.1%.

This cake has attracted many players, but the charging pile operator is generally difficult to make profits. A Shenzhen charging pile operator told the securities times that in addition to the investment cost of charging piles, land and electricity are key resources. Generally, the return time node of the charging station is about 3 years, but the influx of capital from all parties has depressed the profit margin, and it is common to see loss operations in the industry.

'Before 2020, the charging field will be participated by central enterprises such as the State Grid and private enterprises such as special call and star charging. After 2020, the industry will enter new forces, including new forces represented by energy companies, main engine plants and local funds. Now the situation is that old players are still in the mire, but new players are accelerating the influx. It is expected that the industry will usher in a round of elimination reshuffle.' Said Huang Shan, co-founder of electric vehicle observer.

The power exchange mode ushered in favorable policies this year. In October, the Ministry of industry and information technology set up 11 pilot cities for the application of power exchange mode of new energy vehicles, including 8 pilot cities for comprehensive application and 3 cities with heavy truck characteristics. It is planned to promote more than 100000 power exchange vehicles and build more than 1000 power exchange stations.

The performance of the enterprise is more positive than the policy. Weilai completed the layout of 700 replacement power stations ahead of schedule this year, and plans to build more than 4000 in 2025. The five-year goals of Sinopec, GCL energy technology and Aodong new energy are 5000, 6000 and 10000 respectively.

The industry believes that the power exchange mode is more suitable for the application scenario of operating vehicles. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passengers, told the securities times that the power exchange mode can only run through the subdivided fields such as taxis, online car hailing and engineering construction vehicles, and there is almost no possibility of development in the field of private cars. Changing the tram type and preparing more batteries will increase the cost; At the same time, the land resources required for the construction of power exchange stations are also a burden that can not be ignored. Especially in large cities, these increased costs still have to be borne by consumers.

Huangshan expects that the private charging pile in the community will still be the main way of energy supplement in the future, and the modes of public charging pile and power exchange will be used as auxiliary. At present, there are still obstacles for private charging piles to enter the community, which requires multi-party collaborative development of group management and group control, orderly charging, low-power DC and so on.

Capital in-depth segmentation parts Nuggets

From the perspective of investment, the sectors related to new energy vehicles are undoubtedly the hot stars of this year. Cui Yan said that the biggest investment opportunity in the past decade is 'mobile phone + Mobile Internet', and the next decade is 'new energy vehicles + 5g vehicle networking'. From the whole vehicle to the power battery and lithium battery materials, and then to the key parts, the capital seeks the link where certainty and expectation coexist.

At the beginning of the year, the market focus was on the market value of new energy vehicle enterprises to achieve a subversive transcendence over traditional vehicle enterprises. As of December 15, Tesla, the top 15 auto companies in the world, had a market value of US $964 billion, close to the sum of the market values of the 2nd to 10th places; Rivian, who has just been listed, wears the halo of 'Tesla competitor', ranking fourth with a market value of US $98 billion; BYD, great wall, Weilai and SAIC ranked 3rd, 11th, 14th and 15th respectively. In the A-share market, the wind vehicle index rose from the low point in April, with the highest increase of 36% in the year.

For the rise of the whole vehicle sector this year, he Junyi, CO chief analyst of CSCI automobile, believes that the market transaction is mainly medium and long-term logic, including the enhancement of brand pattern certainty and the embryonic manifestation of the change of intelligent driving business model. Smart cars can make profits through autopilot services, OTA (remote online upgrade) and other software, and further open the valuation space for car enterprises. At present, Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other car enterprises have paid software projects.

The prosperity is further reflected in the lithium battery industry chain. Ningde era, the global leader of power battery, leads the 'Ningde index' all the way. As of the closing on December 17, Ningde times had a cumulative increase of 86% during the year, with a total market value of more than 1.5 trillion yuan; The wind lithium battery index has also increased by 90% this year.

'The logic of investment is like building a house. After the foundation is stable, it will go up layer by layer. New energy vehicles appear in the market as new things, and the capital will first invest in the vehicle factory; when the vehicle pattern is relatively determined, it will continue to invest in its upstream, and the power battery is the largest part in the vehicle cost, so it will naturally get a round of speculation; then the capital will find new and profit A more refined track may involve small components such as power semiconductors and sensing devices. ' An investor told the securities times.

Looking forward to the investment trend next year, many institutions believe that intelligence is an important main line. Cui Yan said that 2022 will be the year of intelligence, which is the key factor for the next competition among vehicle manufacturers, and will also bring the demand for incremental parts. Since this year, many technology giants such as Huawei, Baidu and Xiaomi have entered the smart car market. They will be powerful enablers. In the initial stage, they will adopt the mode of cooperating with the main engine factory to build cars, with limited impact. However, the long-term impact cannot be underestimated. It takes about 3 years to form the climate.

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