Market acceptance continues to improve, and last year ushered in the 'first year of outbreak'
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million this year
On the evening of January 3, the exhibition hall of Weilai center in Zhongguancun was brightly lit. Next to an ES6 exhibition car, three groups of citizens came to see the car, two of which had completed the test drive and were selecting the configuration in detail. Such a hot scene has lasted more than a month.
The new energy vehicle market in 2021 has been continuously refreshing the monthly best sales volume with a trend higher than the growth rate of the overall vehicle market almost since the beginning of the year. The 'first year of outbreak' of new energy has almost become the consensus in the industry. In 2022, despite the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the industry generally believes that the decline of subsidies will not change the general growth trend. Experts predict that the new energy vehicle market will further explosive growth this year, and the annual sales volume is even expected to exceed 6 million.
Hot new energy vehicle market 2021
'At the end of the year, I was either accompanying the customer on the test drive or on the way to the test drive.' Li Hao (a pseudonym) of a new energy brand can't help sighing. Last year, after he bought a new energy vehicle and felt 'really fragrant', Li Hao left his original unit and joined a new energy vehicle enterprise as a product expert.
'I feel that this market has been accumulating and changing in the early stage. Last year, it finally reached the critical point, and many people 'suddenly' began to accept it.' Li Hao said that among the customers he received, more and more people came to buy cars with fuel vehicle indicators, some because they like the intelligence of trams, and some because there is no limit on the number of trams on the road.
'This is almost difficult to appear in the past. The market is ushering in a golden period of rapid development.' Li Hao's words express the most direct feeling of many people in the new energy vehicle industry - the improvement of market acceptance makes the new energy vehicle market hot from the beginning of the year to the end of the year in 2021.
During the new year's Day holiday in 2021, many Tesla stores were 'crowded' due to the listing of domestic model y. Since then, in the middle of the year, the new energy vehicle market 'not light in the off-season' hit a new high in sales, and robbed the 'golden nine silver ten' of fuel vehicles in the third quarter. At the end of the year, the new energy vehicle market showed a 'sales Carnival' before the decline of subsidies... Therefore, China Automobile Industry Association raised its forecast for the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 several times. Finally, new energy vehicles achieved a high growth rate of about 40% and the penetration rate of high-speed cities was close to 20%, driving the overall automobile market to turn positive year-on-year growth for the first time after three years of negative growth.
The outbreak of the overall market has also driven the rapid growth of auto enterprises. According to the data, Tesla delivered more than 936000 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87% over 2020; BYD's annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached more than 593000, a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. Among the new forces of car making, Xiao Peng, Wei Lai and ideal delivered more than 90000 vehicles in 2021, forming the first camp of the new forces 'Xiao Wei Li'.
The decline of subsidies will not hinder the continued hot sales this year
This year is the last year of national financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. The Ministry of Finance and other four departments have confirmed that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. Some voices believe that this may lead to a slight rise in the prices of some vehicles, which may have an impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.
However, during the new year's Day holiday, the reporter visited Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other car experience stores and saw that car viewing and test driving in the store were still popular. In order to attract customers, many car companies have launched measures such as 'disguised discount' and 'time limited price protection', and the car price remains unchanged or even more preferential.
Many experts or insiders believe that although the decline of subsidies has an impact on the terminal market, the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy driven to market driven, and the decline of subsidies has a limited impact on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger car market information joint committee, is optimistic about the future performance of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach more than 5.5 million in 2022, and is even expected to exceed 6 million. 'Domestic consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles has increased significantly. Even if the vehicle price increases slightly after the subsidy decline, it will be a short-term phenomenon.' According to Cui Dongshu's analysis, from the perspective of market competition, as more and more automobile enterprises begin to transform, new energy and continuous technological progress, if automobile enterprises want to maintain vehicle competitiveness, price decline will become a long-term trend. In addition, the subsidy policy in 2022 remains stable within the framework of the technical index system and does not raise the 'threshold', which is conducive to the continued strong increment of medium and low-end models.
The relevant person in charge of Weima automobile also believes that the decline of subsidies has a short impact on the new energy vehicle market, and the growth is still the general trend.
Industry carbon reduction needs to focus on production links
The explosive growth of new energy vehicles is also inseparable from the 'double carbon' goal being promoted in China. Ma Weiwei of the double carbon economy research center of CCID Consulting Co., Ltd. said that driven by 'double carbon', the market potential of new energy vehicles is accelerating. The accelerated substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles can effectively alleviate carbon emissions in the transportation field, reduce the market demand for refined oil, and further force the upstream petrochemical industry to 'reduce oil and increase'.
Turning to the future of the industry, Ma Weiwei said that the new energy vehicle industry also needs to pay further attention to raw materials, production, recycling and other fields. 'Although new energy vehicles have achieved carbon reduction at the energy consumption end, they still need to consume a lot of metal and non-metal raw materials in the production and manufacturing process, and produce a lot of carbon emissions.' Ma Weiwei suggested that in the future, the new energy vehicle industry should focus on production and manufacturing links, such as vehicle lightweight design, light metal alloy materials replacing steel materials and cleaner production. At the same time, give consideration to the back-end market, lay out areas such as power battery recycling and parts remanufacturing as soon as possible, and establish and improve the recycling industry system of new energy vehicles.