In 2021, the new energy industry will not only add a 'new background' to energy development, but also become the new kinetic energy of economic green transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and even for a longer period.
Looking forward to 2022, 'Scenery' will be better, and the demand of wind power and photovoltaic industry is expected to continue to promote the quality improvement and efficiency improvement of the whole new energy industry.
'Scenery' leads the increase list of installed power generation scale
Behind the goal of 'double carbon' is an extensive and profound economic and social systematic change.
In order to fight this tough battle well, the policy level will take the lead in 2021, and the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Fully, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job of Carbon Neutralization in peak carbon dioxide emissions and the Action Plan of peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 have been published successively. Among them, the former is the top-level design leading peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, while the latter is the overall deployment of peak carbon dioxide emissions stage.
Under the guidance of top-level design and overall deployment, the development opportunities of new energy industry are gradually emerging.
In 2021, the new energy industry will develop rapidly and gradually become one of the important pillars of the economy. According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, from January to November, China's new energy power generation exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 1,035.57 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, accounting for 13.8% of the electricity consumption of the whole society in the same period.
In 2021, the development of new energy industry at the level of power supply shows great potential. The 2021 'Report Card' released by the National Energy Administration on December 24th shows that in 2021, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China has historically exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and the installed capacity of hydropower and wind power has exceeded 300 million kilowatts. Some institutions predict that in the next 10 years, the newly installed capacity of China's wind power and photovoltaic industry will exceed 1 billion kilowatts.
A new round of project layout starts
Under the background that the expected cost of newly-built photovoltaic power generation and wind power projects is declining with the application of new technologies, from 2021 onwards, the central government will no longer subsidize newly-registered centralized photovoltaic power plants, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects and newly-approved onshore wind power projects, and implement parity access to the Internet.
In 2021, the new energy industry will work hard to realize the blueprint for development in the environment where 'danger' and 'opportunity' coexist firmly and even ahead of schedule. Since mid-October, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia have organized and started a number of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas, with a total scale of nearly 30 million kilowatts, which kicked off the first batch of projects with an installed capacity of about 100 million kilowatts and started a new round of 'accelerated running' of new energy development.
Shi Jingli, a researcher at the Renewable Energy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the outline of the 14 th Five-Year Plan proposed to promote the construction of modern energy system and the construction of large-scale clean energy bases. According to the plan, these large-scale photovoltaic projects that have already started will be put into operation in parallel by 2023, which will become the main contribution force of the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the next two years.
In addition, the National Energy Administration requires all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to report the list of the second batch of large new energy bases before December 15th, with the total amount close to that of the first batch and the installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts.
In addition to the large base with unlimited scenery, rooftop photovoltaic, whole county promotion and hydrogen production by electrolysis of water have become the key words for the development of new energy industry.
The new energy industry is striding forward in 2021, and many institutions have given the wind power and photovoltaic industries a 'stronger than the big market' rating in the next three years. Driven by wind power and photovoltaic industry, the prosperity of new energy industry continues to improve.
Cost reduction, efficiency increase and technological change 'two-wheel drive'
As the year 2022 approaches, the photovoltaic industry has shown a trend of cost reduction and efficiency increase. Since November 30th, Longji and Zhonghuan, two leading silicon wafer manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry, have successively cut prices, leading the long-term healthy development of the industrial chain.
China Securities believes that the bottleneck in the production of silicon materials in the upstream of photovoltaic is expected to be alleviated, and the price reduction of silicon materials can push the price of photovoltaic modules back to a reasonable range. In 2022, the price of silicon material is expected to gradually decline, and the cost pressure of the cell segment can be relieved in stages.
Technological change is becoming the endogenous driving force for the sustainable development of new energy industry. On December 8th, the Three Gorges Group announced that the world's first anti-typhoon floating offshore wind turbine was successfully connected to the grid in Yangjiang offshore wind farm, Guangdong Province. This indicates that China takes the lead in independent research and development, manufacturing, installation and operation of large-capacity typhoon-resistant floating offshore wind turbines. In addition, at the end of November, Sinopec Xinjiang Kuqa Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project, China's first 10,000-ton green hydrogen production project, started construction, which can produce 20,000 tons of green hydrogen per year after put into production.
Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, predicted that after two years of rapid development, the technology of large silicon battery has become the mainstream in the industry, and the next step will be to aim at more efficient N-type batteries. Achieving a conversion efficiency of 25.5% is the future development goal.
Under the 'two-wheel drive' of cost reduction, efficiency increase and technological change, the 'scenery' side will be better in 2022. China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that in 2022, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach more than 75 GW, an increase of 36% to 67% compared with this year. In the wind power sector, due to the large-scale wind turbine bidding in 2021, the newly installed capacity of wind power is also expected to achieve high growth in 2022.
According to the published situation of wind and solar energy distribution and storage in some places, the potential market of energy storage on the power generation side will reach 27 million kWh in 2022. China Securities expects that energy storage on the power generation side will become a high-growth sub-sector.